<
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/05/great-barrier-reef-coral-bleaching-decline-global-heating-recovery>
"The Great Barrier Reef will undergo “rapid coral decline” until 2050 but could
recover if global heating is kept below 2C, according to the most detailed
modelling so far of the future of the world’s biggest coral reef.
The finding contradicts a widely held view that the decline of the oceanic gem
would become irreversible as global temperatures rise above 1.5C, with one
report last month suggesting the world’s tropical corals had already reached a
tipping point of long-term decline.
But the scientists warned the latest research showed the reef’s natural
abilities to mitigate some rises in temperature would be swamped as global
temperatures reach 2C.
Current policies around the world to tackle rising greenhouse gas emissions,
caused mostly by burning fossil fuels, has the planet on track for about 2.8C
of global warming by the end of this century, a UN report said this week.
“If we stay on the pathway we’re treading, it’s a very bad and grim future for
corals,” said Prof Peter Mumby, one of the lead authors of the research at the
University of Queensland. “It won’t lead to the extinction of corals, but it
will be an incredibly profound loss.”
The UN’s climate panel has previously reported that at 1.5C of warming, coral
reefs would decline by between 70% and 90%, and at 2C would be almost
completely lost.
Coral reefs are one of the most susceptible ecosystems to global heating.
Worsening marine heatwaves cause corals to expel the algae that gives them
their colour and much of their nutrients – a process known as coral bleaching
that can weaken or kill corals. Mass bleaching events, once unheard of, have
become increasingly common on the reef.
Mumby said projections about the reef’s future have previously concentrated on
the impact of heat without considering ways some corals and reefs can adapt to
temperatures.
The research, published in the journal
Nature Communications, took into
account how some corals – even those of the same species – can tolerate higher
temperatures than others, and how those traits can be passed on to their
offspring."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
