<
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jan/26/number-of-people-living-in-extreme-heat-to-double-by-2050-if-2c-rise-occurs-study-finds>
"The number of people living with extreme heat will more than double by 2050 if
global heating reaches 2C, according to a new study that shows how the energy
demands for air conditioners and heating systems are expected to change across
the world.
No region will escape the impact, say the authors. Although the tropics and
southern hemisphere will be worst affected by rising heat, the countries in the
north will also find it difficult to adapt because their built environments are
primarily designed to deal with a cooler climate.
The new paper, published in
Nature Sustainability, is the most detailed study
yet of how far and how fast different regions will encounter temperature
extremes as human-driven global heating rises from 1C above preindustrial
levels 10 years ago, towards 1.5C this decade, to 2C, which many scientists
predict could occur around mid-century unless governments make rapid cuts to
emissions from oil, gas and coal.
This will change the pattern of energy demand for temperature management. Over
the coming decades, the northern hemisphere’s heating bill will decrease, while
the cooling bill of the southern hemisphere will increase. Separate studies
have confirmed that by the end of the century, global energy demand from air
conditioning will overtake and then far outstrip that from heating.
For the latest study, extremes were defined by how many days each year
temperatures deviate from a temperate baseline of 18C. Using computer models,
the authors then mapped where the biggest changes will happen and how many
people will be affected.
If the 2C threshold is breached, the new dataset indicates the number of people
experiencing extreme heat will increase from 1.54 billion people (which was 23%
of the world population in 2010) to 3.79 billion (41% of the projected world
population in 2050).
The majority of those affected will be in India, Nigeria, Indonesia,
Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines. But the most significant increase in
dangerous temperatures will threaten Central African Republic, Nigeria, South
Sudan, Laos and Brazil.
In a surprise to the authors, the computer models also found that the greatest
shift will occur early in the warming trajectory – near the 1.5C phase, which
is where the world is now. This adds urgency to the need to adapt areas such as
healthcare, the economy and the energy system."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
