<
https://theconversation.com/future-big-droughts-may-be-worse-than-we-think-nzs-past-shows-why-282259>
"For an agricultural nation like New Zealand, severe drought is one of the most
ominous consequences of a warming planet.
The Climate Change Commission’s latest national risk assessment points to these
events becoming more intense over time, particularly in the country’s drier
northern and eastern regions.
Recent events offer a glimpse of what this can look like: browned paddocks,
shrinking reservoirs, dried-out riverbeds and farmers struggling for feed. They
have also illustrated the heavy economic toll drought can take.
Feed shortages amid an extended 2007–08 drought, which hit Waikato particularly
hard, quadrupled silage prices and cost the national economy several billion
dollars.
Another drought four years later, this time covering the entire North Island,
was later estimated to have squeezed national economic output by as much as
0.7% of GDP.
The Reserve Bank has since used that 2012–13 event as a plausible worst-case
drought scenario in some agricultural lending-risk assessments.
But looking much further back reveals evidence of significantly more severe
meteorological droughts – prolonged periods of unusually low rainfall –
occurring in the early 20th century.
Our new research suggests some of New Zealand’s most extreme drought history
has effectively been overlooked in modern policymaking."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
