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https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/5/21/the-crises-caused-by-the-iran-war-will-hit-the-world-in-four-waves>
"If tomorrow Iran, the United States and Israel were to announce a peace deal
and the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen, the war would not be over.
Wars do not end when the missiles stop flying. They end when the structural
damage they inflict on the global trading system finishes working its way
through prices, contracts, balance sheets and political legitimacy.
By that measure, the impact of the 1990 Gulf War, for example, lasted decades.
Iraqi crude oil production did not recover to pre-war levels until a decade
after the conflict while the Iraqi state continued to pay the United
Nations-mandated $52.4bn in compensation to Kuwait until 2022.
Similarly, the Ukraine war shock may have been at its most palpable in 2022,
but it is still affecting economies across the world and will do so even after
it ends.
The Iran war has only just begun to deliver its costs – costs that will be
paid, as always, by nations that had no role in starting the conflict. Its
global impact will come in four waves.
The first wave is the one everyone sees. Crude moves, liquefied natural gas
(LNG) follows, freight rates spike and the financial press writes about energy
inflation as though it were the main disruption.
It is not. It is the entry point."
Via Seph.
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
