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https://theconversation.com/scientists-have-scrapped-the-worst-case-climate-scenario-because-action-is-making-a-difference-283675>
"When major new climate change scenarios are released, there’s always strong
interest. These scenarios lay out what our future climate will look like,
depending on how fast we act to cut emissions.
But what was surprising about the seven new scenarios announced last week was
that United States President Donald Trump took an interest.
Why? Because a high-emissions scenario – known as RCP8.5 and its successor
SSP5-8.5 – had been removed. Under these worst-case scenarios, nations would
make no effort to cut emissions and expand fossil fuel use. By 2100, carbon
dioxide levels would almost triple, to 1,135 parts per million and the world
would be around 4.5°C hotter than the pre-industrial period.
The climate scientists responsible for laying out the range of possible futures
removed the RCP8.5 scenarios for a very good reason. Although often slow and
incomplete, our efforts to tackle climate change have made a tangible
difference. We have averted the worst climate future once thought possible.
The job is far from done. Emissions are at record highs and global warming is
speeding up.
But the removal of this high-emissions scenario isn’t, as Trump and other
climate sceptics have claimed, a sign of failed modelling, or that climate
change was a hoax. It’s a sign the expansion of solar, wind, electric vehicles
and batteries have slowed emissions growth."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
