<
https://reneweconomy.com.au/more-than-just-a-cop-headline-35-pct-electrification-target-is-a-global-competitiveness-test/>
"Australia has endorsed a useful COP31-era number: 35% of global final energy
demand supplied by electricity by 2035. The target is directionally right, and
it is easy to under-read. If it is treated as another energy-share statistic,
it will miss what electrification actually does.
The better reading is that 35% electricity is a test of whether countries are
moving useful energy services onto the efficient energy carrier. A litre of
diesel in a haul truck, a gigajoule of gas in a boiler and a kilowatt-hour of
electricity in a motor can all be converted into units on an energy chart, but
they do not deliver the same amount of useful work.
Fossil energy systems throw away a lot of what official statistics count.
Electric systems waste much less. That is the primary-energy trap, and it makes
electrification look slower than it really is while making the remaining task
look larger than it really is.
Marco Möller, an energy analyst whose recent LinkedIn curve on the
primary-energy fallacy has been circulating in energy circles, has a useful way
of showing this.
Michael Liebreich, of BNEF and hydrogen-ladder fame, and Paul Martin, of
primary-energy-fallacy and hopium fame, have amplified the same basic point:
primary energy is a poor way to judge electrification progress when the
comparison is between waste-heavy combustion and efficient electric pathways.
Using a midpoint ratio of about 2.3 units of fossil primary energy to one unit
of electric useful service, 35% electricity in primary-energy statistics is not
really 35% of useful energy services. It is closer to 55%. The exact number
moves with the sector mix, but the direction of the correction does not. The
official denominator still includes a large amount of fossil conversion loss.
That makes the 35% target more than a diplomatic statement. It is a
competitiveness test. Countries that move transport, heat, industry and freight
onto electricity get more value from every additional unit of clean generation.
Countries that keep treating electrification as a power-sector issue will find
that their official energy charts change slowly for physical reasons, not just
policy reasons."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
