South Sudan at 15: how the political elite have found a way to profit from peace as well as war

Sat, 11 Jul 2026 04:54:30 +1000

Andrew Pam <xanni [at] glasswings.com.au>

Andrew Pam
<https://theconversation.com/south-sudan-at-15-how-the-political-elite-have-found-a-way-to-profit-from-peace-as-well-as-war-285846>

"South Sudan’s independence from Sudan in 2011 was meant to close the chapter
on one of Africa’s longest civil wars: the north-south war that preceded it.
Formally, it did. But independence did not end the deeper struggles over power,
revenue and coercion inside the newly independent state.

South Sudan returned to war in 2013, watched a 2015 settlement collapse, and
now lives under a 2018 Revitalised Agreement whose promised transition has
been postponed repeatedly.

This is usually told as a story of failed peacemaking, with too many spoilers
and too little political will. But what if these deals are not failing so much
as working? What if they stabilise order precisely by preserving the systems
that make violence profitable?

Political settlements theory helps explain why peace agreements often focus on
dividing power, offices and resources among elites. The hope is that if rival
leaders receive a share of power, offices and resources, they will have less
reason to fight. But negotiated transitions can also carry wartime systems into
peace. The question, then, is not only who gets a share of the state, but what
kinds of war economies, revenue systems and coercive practices are being
preserved."

Cheers,
       *** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net               Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/                 Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/            Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/               Manager, Serious Cybernetics

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