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https://reneweconomy.com.au/coal-closure-plan-urgently-needed-as-unreliable-clunkers-push-power-prices-through-roof/>
"Last week again demonstrated the growing unreliability of end of life coal
fired power plants which costs Australians and domestic heavy industry dearly.
Paul McArdle of
WattClarity highlights the massive spike in power prices on 8
July 2026 that saw pricing average >A$300/MWh for most of the evening peak
across not just Victoria but the entire National Electricity Market (NEM) last
Wednesday.
From 10.05am, the 6 x Loy Yang lignite coal-fired power plant units across Loy
Yang A (AGL) and Loy Yang B (now Sembcorp owned Alinta) rebid upwards due to a
‘coal shortfall’.
WattClarity cites three other factors that compounded the problem of coal
shortages in the La Trobe Valley, namely: restrictions on electricity imports
from NSW; the season lull in variable renewable energy, particularly noting
wind capacities dropped to a very low 3% availability, and it was evening, so
no solar; and batteries under-delivered, again possibly due to weak solar
recharging in winter.
This price spike is another reminder that ageing coal guarantees neither
reliability nor price stability: a single coal supply chain failure constrained
supply when demand was high and renewable output was at a winter lull,
highlighting the vulnerability of this old tech and the need for an orderly
transition to firmed renewables.
It is established that renewable energy firmed by storage drives prices down,
mitigates fossil fuel hyperinflation during international wars and helps
deliver our climate and energy security agendas, including the federal
government’s 82% renewables goal by 2030.
CSIRO’s
GenCost 2025-26 report today again highlights this point, with
batteries real-time reshaping the cost curves of the Australian electricity
market.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen has made the case that repeated breakdowns make
ageing coal generation – not renewables – the true source of “intermittent”
power, and that ‘sweating the asset’ is a far greater reliability threat.
As Bowen noted, “these examples represent a broader trend that will only worsen
if governments continue to hope that unpredictably intermittent coal can keep
the lights on.” Public education is needed to counter fossil fuel-funded
misinformation on coal’s role in our energy mix.
End-of-life coal plants are deteriorating before the replacement system has
been built – a transition-planning gap. The solution is not more coal or the
Crisafulli government’s wrongheaded QLD budget ‘coal keeper’ program to extend
coal clunkers’ lives. What is needed is an orderly closure schedule giving
clean energy entrants the demand, pricing and regulatory certainty to invest in
new capacity."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
