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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/19/carbon-pollution-massive-expansion-marine-heatwaves-europe>
"Carbon pollution has fuelled a “massive expansion” of marine heatwaves in
Europe this summer, research has found, with some waters recording temperatures
6C higher than normal.
The hottest fortnights of this year would have been “virtually impossible” in a
preindustrial climate in three of the four sea regions studied, according to
analysis by World Weather Attribution, while in the Celtic region, which covers
much of the water around the British Isles, heat hit levels that used to strike
just once a century.
Climate breakdown was responsible for about two-thirds of the observed excess
heat, the researchers said, having warmed waters by about 2C in the
Mediterranean, 1.4C in the Bay of Biscay and Iberian Peninsula, and 1.3C around
Ireland and the Channel.
The rapid analysis, which has not yet been submitted for peer review, comes as
Europe reels from one of its hottest summers on record. Relentless heatwaves
have killed tens of thousands of people and stripped plants of moisture,
ruining crops and fuelling large wildfires.
While hot seas receive little attention, they can lead to the death of
habitat-forming species such as corals and macroalgae, disrupting ecosystems
and leading to large-scale mortality of fish and seabirds. They also raise
dangerous overnight temperatures in coastal regions, as oceans cool more slowly
than land.
Claire Bergin, a scientist at the Irish climate analysis research units of
Maynooth University in Ireland, and co-author of the report said: “While warmer
waters for swimming may sound appealing to beachgoers in cooler countries like
mine, the impacts on marine life beneath the surface is more serious.
“This has the potential to completely reshape ecosystems that coastal
communities rely on for food and income, and drive damaging extreme weather on
land too.”
The study, the group’s first to focus on the effect of fossil fuel burning on
marine heat, compared observed sea surface temperatures with simulations from
climate models to asses the role of global heating.
They found a “massive expansion” of marine heatwaves in 2026 that has so far
hit 90% of the Bay of Biscay and Iberian coast region, and 80% of the western
Mediterranean. In a hypothetical climate not heated by humanity, scientists
said they would expect those figures to be half as big.
Removing the effect of climate breakdown cut the expected marine heatwave area
from 70% to 9% in the eastern Mediterranean, and from 80% to 30% in the Celtic
region, the analysis showed.
Separate research published in January found that marine heatwaves lead to more
intense rainfall on land. Globally, about 5-25% of extreme rainfall over
coastal land is accompanied by a nearby marine heatwave, the study found.
Rainfall during extreme downpours influenced by a strong heatwave was found to
be 20-30% higher.
Jamie Atkins, a scientist at Utrecht University and lead author of recent
research into the unprecedented 2023 marine heatwave in north-west Europe, who
was not involved in the new analysis, said it reinforced previous research that
showed current heat extremes in Europe should not be considered unexpected."
Via Susan ****
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
