<
https://theprogressnetwork.substack.com/p/the-great-american-crime-decline>
"In early spring, the last time I wrote about the Great American Crime Decline
2.0—which is occurring right now—we were waiting on the FBI to confirm that
2025’s murder rate was at record low levels.1
Well, the data is here, and it was: at 4.1 murders per 100,000 inhabitants, the
FBI notes that 2025’s rate tied with 1955 and 1956 for the lowest ever
recorded. It’s also the largest year-to-year decrease ever for murder and
violent crime overall.
Some experts have quibbles about trusting FBI data from so far back; they’re
fine with proclaiming the 2025 rate to be the lowest in American history,
period. But any way you want to slice it, you’re living through some of the
safest times the US has ever experienced. Congratulations!
What’s more, two major reports—one representing police chiefs in America’s
largest cities, the other from the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) that
samples 36 major cities—show the decline continuing this year. And it far
exceeds a “return to normal” after the pandemic-era crime spike. The CCJ one
notes that compared to 2019, homicides are down 31%, and robbery, 41%.
Carjackings have been cut in half, and aggravated, gun, and sexual assaults
have all dropped as well.
In fact, criminologist Jeff Asher is forecasting that the 2026 murder rate
“should come in at an astonishing 3 to 3.8 per 100k,” which would be the
all-time lowest by a wide, wide margin, particularly gobsmacking given that the
population has ballooned by more than 170 million since
Leave It to Beaver
was must-see TV. That kind of rate represents “about ten thousand fewer people
murdered in 2026 than in 2020, 2021, and 2022,” Asher writes. “That’s an even
larger drop in murder than occurred in the 1990s in an even shorter
timeframe.”"
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
