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https://theconversation.com/nepal-tibet-floods-when-disaster-strikes-before-communities-recover-from-previous-climate-extremes-crisis-escalates-290484>
"Major flash floods on the Nepal-Tibet border have destroyed homes, roads,
bridges and local hydropower projects. The flooding of the Bhote Koshi river is
affecting 50,000 residents. More than 100 people are dead, with hundreds more,
including international tourists, missing.
This region of the Himalayas had not yet recovered from the Bhote Koshi
flooding in 2025 that killed nine people as it washed away a “friendship
bridge” linking Nepal and China, disrupting trade and transport for months.
In Sri Lanka, recent floods and landslides struck affected communities that
were still recovering from Cyclone Ditwah, which had caused widespread damage
only nine months earlier. With little time to recover from the cyclone,
communities had no protection from further flooding. More than 15,000 people
have been directly affected and 6,800 people were displaced this August.
Disaster risk usually considers how severe the next flood, wildfire, cyclone or
drought will be. But the Nepal and Sri Lanka examples show another dimension
that is often overlooked: how quickly can a community recover and will it do so
before the next disaster arrives?
A disaster rarely leaves a place exactly as it found it. Roads and bridges may
remain damaged. Families may have spent their savings. Businesses may still be
struggling. Governments can still be financing reconstruction, while hospitals
and other public services remain under pressure.
If another hazard arrives before these systems have recovered, it does not
encounter the same community that existed before the first disaster. It
encounters a place with less resilience and a weakened infrastructure.
A useful way to understand this is through the recovery gap: the relationship
between how long recovery takes and how much time is available before another
damaging disaster occurs.
Imagine two communities experiencing similar floods. In one, the previous major
disaster occurred ten years earlier. Homes have been rebuilt, infrastructure
repaired and emergency resources replenished. In the other, another disaster
happened only six months ago. Roads remain under repair, families are still
displaced or in debt, and public authorities are still paying for
reconstruction. The new flood may be physically similar in both places. Its
consequences may not be.
Incomplete recovery can substantially increase long-term losses. A 2025 study
of recurrent flooding in the Philippines that losses increased by 40% between
2000 and 2018 because of incomplete recover. This suggests that repeated
disaster losses are not always simply additive. The first disaster can change
the conditions under which the next one occurs and the effects of subsequent
disasters can be much more severe."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
