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https://theconversation.com/earlier-volcano-warnings-could-mean-more-false-alarms-but-they-could-also-save-lives-290430>
"Whakaari/White Island’s sudden eruption in December 2019, which killed 22
people and severely injured 25 others, was New Zealand’s deadliest volcanic
disaster in recent history.
But it was not a freak event. Over the past 20 years, New Zealand has
experienced another half-dozen sudden volcanic explosions with the potential to
kill or injure people nearby.
In many respects, these were near-misses, occurring at night or when few
tourists or workers were present. Yet none was successfully forecast early
enough to warn people or evacuate them beforehand.
The danger posed by such sudden eruptions is not unique to New Zealand. In
2014, Japan’s Mt Ontake erupted with little warning, killing 63 people, many of
whom had been hiking near the summit.
Our new research suggests machine-learning techniques could help provide more
warning. By detecting subtle changes in the continuous vibrations around a
volcano, they can potentially identify signs of an impending eruption hours
beforehand.
But what if faster warnings also mean more false alarms? How many should we
accept if earlier warnings can save lives?"
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
