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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/sep/02/global-heating-warming-1-8c-best-case-scenario-un-united-nations-environment-programme-report>
"Global heating will reach at least 1.8C under even the most optimistic future,
well beyond the Paris agreement goal of 1.5C, according to a UN report that
warns every fraction of temperature rise intensifies destructive extreme
weather, glacier melt, ecosystem loss, and island and coastal city submersion.
The report by the Nairobi-based UN Environment Programme confirmed overshooting
the 1.5C goal inscribed in the landmark Paris agreement of 2015 was now
“unavoidable” and, despite some progress in addressing the human-caused climate
crisis driven by burning fossil fuels, likely in the next few years.
It said: “There are no good outcomes above 1.5C”.
Heating of up to 3C above preindustrial levels could lead to glaciers losing
more than a quarter of their mass by 2100, raising sea levels by up to 13cm.
Global food production could decline by up to 14% by 2050 if there are not
effective strategies to adapt.
Human health, water supplies, nature, cities, infrastructure and economies
could all be severely damaged. Some losses would be irreversible. Many
communities may have to relocate or change their livelihoods.
The report said the best hope for humanity to limit damage was to adopt an
“overshoot, peak and decline” pathway that required immediate and sustained
greenhouse gas emissions cuts combined with steps to remove carbon dioxide from
the atmosphere.
It described the goal of net zero emissions – increasingly politically
contentious in some countries – as “an essential milestone that cannot be
skipped” and stressed carbon dioxide removal through steps such as establishing
vast new forests must occur alongside, not as an alternative to, deep cuts in
fossil pollution.
Crucially, the authors of the report, titled
Limiting Overshoot, said the
average global temperature could be returned to 1.5C this century only if
heating stayed below about 1.8C. They warned nature’s capacity to store carbon
was uncertain and would shrink the more the planet heats."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
