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https://theconversation.com/australians-are-having-fewer-babies-and-our-local-born-population-is-about-to-shrink-heres-why-its-not-that-scary-228273>
"Australians are having fewer babies, so many fewer that without international
migration our population would be on track to decline in just over a decade.
In most circumstances, the number of babies per woman that a population needs
to sustain itself – the so-called total fertility rate – is 2.1.
Australia’s total fertility rate dipped below 2.1 in the late 1970s, moved back
up towards it in the late 2000s (assisted in part by an improving economy,
better access to childcare and the introduction of the Commonwealth Baby
Bonus), and then plunged again, hitting a low of 1.59 during the first year of
COVID.
The latest population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics
assume the rate remains near its present 1.6 for the next 50 years.
An alternative, lower, set of assumptions has the rate falling to 1.45 over the
next five years and staying there. A higher set of assumptions has it
rebounding to 1.75 and staying there.
A comprehensive study of global fertility trends published in March in the
medical journal
The Lancet has Australia’s central case at 1.45, followed by
a fall to 1.33 by the end of the century.
Significantly, none of these assumptions envisages a return to replacement
rate.
The bureau’s central projection has Australia’s population turning down from
2037 in the absence of a boost from migration.
It’s easy to make guesses about reasons. Reliable contraception has been widely
available for 50 years. Rents, mortgages and the other costs facing Australians
of child-bearing age appear to be climbing. It’s still difficult to have a
career if you have a child, and data show women still carry the substantive
burden of unpaid work around the home.
The US fertility rate has fallen much in line with Australia’s.
Reporting on research into the reasons,
Forbes Magazine succinctly said a
broken economy had “screwed over” Americans considering having children.
More diplomatically, it said Americans saw parenthood as “harder to manage”
than they might have in the past."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
