<
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/sep/19/global-heating-is-making-el-nino-and-la-nina-forecasts-less-reliable-bom-says>
"The Bureau of Meteorology is shifting the way it communicates about climate
phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña, because global heating is making
predictions based on the past less reliable.
This week the bureau kept the country on a “La Niña watch” and said if the
climate system in the Pacific does develop, it’s likely to be short-lived and
weak.
Historically, La Niña events – where warmer waters gather to the north of
Australia – have been associated with cooler and wetter conditions from across
north-western Australia to the south-east. El Niño events are often warmer and
drier.
But Dr Karl Braganza, national manager of climate services at the bureau, said
climate change and the amount of heat being added to the oceans made those old
relationships less reliable.
Climate change may not have “broken” them, he said, “but the number of times
when the climate is inconsistent with what we saw in the past will only
increase”."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
