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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2025/mar/11/ex-tropical-cyclone-alfred-climate-denial-australia-trump-attacks-us-science-agencies>
"It’s not a good time for climate science. The Trump administration has sacked
more than a thousand staff from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, the country’s leading agency for weather forecasting and
climate science, potentially damaging its ability to do lifesaving work
forecasting hurricanes and other extreme weather events.
The New York Times
reported plans are under way to fire another 1,000. If true, that will take the
cuts to about 20% of the workforce.
On Monday, it was announced Nasa was axing its chief scientist, Katherine
Calvin, who had been appointed to lead the agency’s work on climate change. In
trademark Donald Trump/Elon Musk style, there appears little care or sense in
where cuts have been made. It’s destruction for destruction’s sake, with tens
of thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers underpinning the understanding
of climate science dismissed as a “hoax” or, somehow, “woke”. As in most areas,
what happens in the US on forecasting and science capability will have an
impact beyond its borders.
In Australia, the past week has seen a fresh wave of climate denial as
ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred approached and hit the southern Queensland coast.
News Corp outlets, in particular, have run straw man arguments attacking people
that have forcefully linked the storm to the climate crisis.
Some commentators have pointed out that southern Queensland has had cyclones
before. Others have suggested there is uncertainty in the data about the pace
and way in which they are changing, and that climate change didn’t “cause”
Alfred. Well, yes. That’s all correct, of course, but hardly the point.
What they mostly haven’t said is that the ocean and atmosphere are demonstrably
warmer than even just a few years ago. Or that this means the most intense
storms formed in warmer conditions carry more energy and more water. Or that
the conditions under which tropical cyclones can form are moving south as the
planet heats up.
Tropical cyclones can take shape when the sea is 26.5C. Temperatures at that
level are not enough for a cyclone to form – a range of climatic conditions
have to occur – but they are being reached and sustained more often in places
further away from the equator.
As the cliche goes, the dice are increasingly loaded towards an extreme event
being worse than in the past. We have loaded the dice by burning fossil fuels
in greater and greater quantities. They have been the primary driver of a more
than 50% increase in the amount of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere since pre-industrial times.
The evidence is that this is making tropical cyclones less frequent but more
intense. There is data suggesting they also tend to last longer. Greater
intensity plus time equals heightened risk of damage and casualties. It doesn’t
mean that every cyclone or extreme storm will be more damaging than in the
past. It does mean that when one comes, the potential for it to carry enough
energy to wreak significant havoc is rising, not falling."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
