<
https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2025/02/06/chinas-economic-problem-isnt-just-japanification--it-may-be-worse/>
Via Muse, who wrote:
"I remember in 1979 getting in big trouble in my history class for daring to
express the opinion that Russia was highly unlikely to ever invade the US. Even
if they did, what would they do with us? They aren’t as big as the US either
physically or by population. They don’t have the resources the US has. Their
science and technology is seriously hobbled by their government. They have the
bomb, which is something. And a finely honed secret service who learned their
craft by terrorising their own people. The loyalty of their populace is low.
Rome spread itself so thin across the globe that eventually it dissolved as a
super power. If the USSR tried to do the same, they would also dissolve.
I was called a traitor. How am I a traitor when I believe that we are currently
stronger than the USSR? You can only mistreat your own people so much and for
so long before a country collapses. The USSR will collapse. Before the US
collapses, if we continue as we are.
Now I see people trembling in almost exactly the same way when it comes to
China.
Neither the USSR nor China have ever been communist. They both used that word
in order to gain power through a misled populace, who was promised a utopia
that has never been realised. The 47th president of the US does the same thing
when he promises to make American great again. China is an extremely polarised
society with a vile 1% who own most of the wealth, while the majority doesn’t
even get socialised medicine. The difference between China and the US is that
China has an authoritarian government who feels free to terrorise their
wealthiest, rather than bending the knee to their riches. In the US our
wealthiest simply buy the government and put a Zaphod Beeblebrox in power.
China is not the economic power you think it is. I believe many people expect
it to be the next super power because they can imagine their own democracy
failing, but they can’t imagine capitalism failing. According to
Forbes
magazine:
“After two decades of rapid expansion, China’s economy has seized up. Real
growth has slowed dramatically, as reported by the World Bank and by the
Rhodium Group (as opposed to Beijing’s official numbers, which are widely
discounted). In current dollars, growth seems to have been negative from
2021-2023.”
This has not changed in 2024 or now in 2025. Who wants to buy manufactured
products from a belligerent country?
The environmental crisis requires mass cooperation. The question is: how much
suffering will we need to go through before we start doing it? China could take
over other parts of the world such as Australia in the midst of climate chaos,
but they would be subject to it as well. They would spread themselves thin.
They would then not be doing what it takes to correct the problem. Everything
could dissolve into war, which would aggravate the climate crisis. Eventually,
there would be no China, no Russia, no US, no Europe, the list goes on. If you
are thinking about a strong heroic man to turn this around and take us into the
future, then you are thinking the wrong thoughts. That sort of thinking got us
into this mess in the first place. How much better off was Russia under Stalin?
The US under Trump?
My bets are on a re-structured United Nations, or a replacement United Nations,
which fully embraces truly democratic decision making. Will we get that? That
depends upon how long we choose to sit on our hands and do nothing when it
comes to both the environment and human rights. We are going to be living in a
post-apocalyptic world. Let’s see if we can keep it from being dystopian, and
have half a chance at rebuilding."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
