<
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/jun/23/giant-asteroid-could-crash-moon-2032-firing-debris-earth>
"If a giant asteroid smashes into the moon in 2032 it could send lunar debris
hurtling towards Earth, researchers have said, posing a risk to satellites but
also creating a rare and spectacularly vivid meteor shower visible in the
skies.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 triggered a planetary defence response earlier this year
after telescope observations revealed the “city killer” had a 3% chance of
colliding with Earth.
Later observations found the likelihood of the asteroid, estimated at about
53-67 metres (174-220ft) wide, hitting the Earth was negligibly low at 0.0017%
– although the moon would still be under threat.
The odds of the space rock hitting Earth’s nearest neighbour have since risen
to 4.3%, according to data from the James Webb space telescope.
A study released this month by researchers from Canadian universities, which
has not been peer reviewed, has mapped out how the asteroid’s impact on the
moon may shear off rocks that could head for Earth.
Researchers simulated how the impact could create a roughly 1km-diameter crater
in the moon’s surface and launch millions of kilograms of debris out of the
moon’s orbit and towards Earth, where it would arrive days later.
“If 2024 YR4 strikes the moon in 2032, it will (statistically speaking) be the
largest impact in approximately 5,000 years,” the report said. “The resulting
meteor shower at Earth could be eye-catching.”
While many of the millimetre- to centimetre-sized lunar rocks would burn up in
Earth’s atmosphere and present no threat to humans, some material could be
captured in Earth’s orbit, presenting a hazard to satellites, spacecraft and
astronauts."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
