<
https://theconversation.com/china-may-not-invade-taiwan-but-rather-blockade-it-how-would-this-work-and-could-it-be-effective-257731>
"US officials believe Chinese President Xi Xinping has set a deadline for his
military to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027 – the centennial anniversary
of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth mentioned this date at a security
conference in Singapore in May, warning of the “imminent threat” China poses to
Taiwan.
The PLA has invested heavily in expanding and modernising its operations in
recent years. Since 2015, it has built the world’s largest navy and coast
guard.
But rather than threaten an invasion of Taiwan, China seems increasingly likely
to pressure the self-governing, democratically ruled island with an extended
blockade to force it to capitulate.
In preparation for such a possible action, China has developed a new command
structure enabling it to coordinate its air, sea and land-based weapons systems
to enact a strategy of
lianhe fengkong (联合封控), or joint blockade. This would
effectively cut Taiwan off from the outside world.
In late July, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
produced a report on 26 simulated war games it conducted to determine what a
Chinese blockade of Taiwan would look like.
Taiwan’s natural gas supplies were predicted to run out after ten days of a
blockade. Coal and oil supplies would run out in a matter of weeks. If Taiwan’s
electricity was reduced to 20% of its pre-blockade levels, all manufacturing
would cease. Casualties were expected to be in the thousands.
Taiwan is particularly vulnerable to a blockade. It relies more than any other
developed nation on port calls relative to the size of its economy. Its biggest
ports are on its west coast, facing mainland China. The island also has limited
emergency food and fuel reserves."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
