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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/29/climate-change-global-heating-warming-oceans-uncharted-future-australia>
"Australia’s oceans will enter “uncharted territory” by 2040 due to global
heating, even if significant emissions cuts occur, new research has found.
Australian researchers modelled ocean conditions under four scenarios,
including current, high- and low-emissions futures. They found that in 15
years, marine ecosystems would be facing extreme heat, oxygen loss and acidity
conditions.
“The average year from 2040 onwards will be more extreme than the most extreme
year that we’ve experienced up until 2015,” said Prof David Schoeman of the
University of the Sunshine Coast, co-author of the research published in
Earth’s Future.
Alice Pidd, the study’s lead author who is also from the University of the
Sunshine Coast, said marine species were already shifting towards the poles,
seeking out cooler waters at an average of 59km per decade at current rates of
warming. Some species were moving faster, such as kingfish in eastern
Australia, which were shifting up to 102km every 10 years.
“This gradual ratcheting up is punctuated by extreme events such as marine
heatwaves that are becoming increasingly more frequent, intense and prolonged,”
she said. “As our oceans acidify [and] lose oxygen, the life they support is
under increasing pressure to move, adapt or die. We’re already seeing this in
action.”
The projections showed marine protected areas were just as exposed to these
risks as unprotected ocean. The authors recommended the expansion of protected
zones to include places designated as climate refuges where biodiversity had
the best chance of surviving.
Potential refuges – areas expected to see the least amount of change – were
mostly located along southern and south-western coastlines under emissions
scenarios that met or exceeded the Paris climate agreement. These were fewer,
and vanished more quickly under higher-emissions scenarios.
The team called for urgent, aggressive action to reduce carbon emissions in
order to delay or limit the projected climate impacts.
“We’re entering uncharted territory and marine biodiversity will be under
increased pressure to adapt,” Pidd said. “The past is no longer a good guide to
the future.”"
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
