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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/11/point-of-no-return-hothouse-earth-global-heating-climate-tipping-points>
"The world is closer than thought to a “point of no return” after which runaway
global heating cannot be stopped, scientists have said.
Continued global heating could trigger climate tipping points, leading to a
cascade of further tipping points and feedback loops, they said. This would
lock the world into a new and hellish “hothouse Earth” climate far worse than
the 2-3C temperature rise the world is on track to reach. The climate would
also be very different to the benign conditions of the past 11,000 years,
during which the whole of human civilisation developed.
At just 1.3C of global heating in recent years, extreme weather is already
taking lives and destroying livelihoods across the globe. At 3-4C, “the economy
and society will cease to function as we know it”, scientists said last week,
but a hothouse Earth would be even more fiery.
The public and politicians were largely unaware of the risk of passing the
point of no return, the researchers said. The group said they were issuing
their warning because while rapid and immediate cuts to fossil fuel burning
were challenging, reversing course was likely to be impossible once on the path
to a hothouse Earth, even if emissions were eventually slashed.
It was difficult to predict when climate tipping points would be triggered,
making precaution vital, said Dr Christopher Wolf, a scientist at Terrestrial
Ecosystems Research Associates in the US. Wolf is a member of a study team that
includes Prof Johan Rockström at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research in Germany and Prof Hans Joachim Schellnhuber at the International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria.
“Crossing even some of the thresholds could commit the planet to a hothouse
trajectory,” said Wolf. “Policymakers and the public remain largely unaware of
the risks posed by what would effectively be a point-of-no-return transition.
“It’s likely that global temperatures are [already] as warm as, or warmer than,
at any point in the last 125,000 years and that climate change is advancing
faster than many scientists predicted.”
It is also likely that carbon dioxide levels are the highest they have been in
at least 2m years.
Prof Tim Lenton, an expert on tipping points at the University of Exeter in the
UK, said: “We know we are running profound risks on the current climate
trajectory, which we can’t rule out could turn into a trajectory towards a much
less habitable state of the climate for us. However, we don’t need to be
heading towards a hothouse Earth for there to be profound risks to humanity and
our societies – these will already be upon us if we continue to 3C global
warming.”"
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
