<
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/19/the-guardian-view-on-japans-cherry-blossom-when-spring-slips-out-of-time>
"A picture posted on social media last April by Prof Yasuyuki Aono of a
spreadsheet, with its blank row for 2026, carries a quiet poignancy. Prof Aono
died before he got to fill in this year’s entry for when the cherry blossom
fully bloomed in Kyoto. The academic had spent decades reconstructing dates of
flowering that go back to the ninth century. His work illuminated how a
botanical event long associated with the Japanese idea of
mono no aware – a
sadness at the passing of things – is shifting because of the climate crisis.
The “peak bloom” now occurs around two weeks earlier than in previous
centuries. In the 1820s full bloom arrived in mid-April. In 2023 the
full-flowering date was 25 March. An earlier blooming indicates warmer springs
– and Prof Aono’s data provides a warning signal that Japan’s “sakura front”
comes sooner each year.
But this change is more than just a biological response to rising temperatures.
In Japan, it threatens to disrupt what the seasons mean. Springtime arrives
with hanami – weeks of picnics and petals – as the blossom sweeps north from
Okinawa to Hokkaido in a blaze of pink and white.
The timing matters beyond the aesthetic. Japan’s tourism industry relies on the
$9bn a year generated by cherry blossom season. Such is the craze in the
country that a town near Mount Fuji cancelled this year’s festivities because
it was being overrun by visitors in search of “Instagrammable” spots.
Prof Aono’s work suggested that March temperatures in Kyoto have risen by
several degrees since the early 19th century – enough to shift peak bloom by
weeks rather than days. His records suggest that this century is much hotter
than previous ones. The pattern is not unique to Japan. Since 1921, the US has
recorded peak bloom dates for the cherry trees Japan had given as a gift to
Washington a century ago. In both cases, it has advanced by about a week.
Another researcher will now maintain and update the records. Prof Aono learned
classical Japanese script to read historical documents and reconstructed
centuries of bloom dates. A millennium of book-keeping sounds permanent. But it
depends on decades of effort by individuals whose lives are finite."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
